![]() ![]() 5.4 million are adult legal permanent residents (LPRs) who could not vote because they have not yet become naturalized U.S.But it still likely lags well below the turnout rate of whites and blacks this year. The estimated 44% to 53% turnout rate of eligible Hispanic voters in 2012 is in the same range as the 50% who turned out in 2008. 11.2 million are adults who were eligible to vote but chose not to.That universe can be broken down as follows: But perhaps a more illuminating way to analyze the distinctive characteristics of the Hispanic electorate-current and future-is to parse the more than 40 million Hispanics in the United States who did not vote or were not eligible to vote in 2012. If the national exit poll’s estimate proves correct that 10% of all voters this year were Hispanic, it would mean that as many as 12.5 million Hispanics cast ballots. Moreover, if Hispanics’ relatively low voter participation rates and naturalization rates were to increase to the levels of other groups, the number of votes that Hispanics actually cast in future elections could double within two decades. between now and 2030, at which time 40 million Hispanics will be eligible to vote, up from 23.7 million now. In the coming decades, their share of the age-eligible electorate will rise markedly through generational replacement alone.Īccording to Pew Hispanic Center projections, Hispanics will account for 40% of the growth in the eligible electorate in the U.S. Their median age is 27 years-and just 18 years among native-born Hispanics-compared with 42 years for that of white non-Hispanics. The most important is that Hispanics are by far the nation’s youngest ethnic group. However, their share of the electorate will rise quickly for several reasons. To borrow a boxing metaphor, they still “punch below their weight.” population but just 10% of all voters this year, according to the national exit poll. The nation’s 53 million Hispanics comprise 17% of the total U.S. Census Bureau data, Election Day exit polls and a new nationwide survey of Hispanic immigrants. The record number 1 of Latinos who cast ballots for president this year are the leading edge of an ascendant ethnic voting bloc that is likely to double in size within a generation, according to a Pew Hispanic Center analysis based on U.S.
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